Trump Supporter Exodus: Patterns of Doubting Republicans Leaving Their Middle School Mindset Leader

I'm a lifelong Republican who has been dismissed for failing to give Trump my absolute allegiance even when he betrays my party's values and the system we Americans all rely upon. For my principled challenges, I've been unfriended (surprisingly) and trolled mercilessly. Simply put, I'm an unwanted Republican by those in my own political party.

I understand it's unlikely that I'll change the mind of those deeply loyal to Trump, even to this day, while he self-destructs, sometimes throwing them a bone. But what I can and will do is speak to the doubting members (the wavering and often silent majority) of my party that are feeling shame or a sense of despair and want a pathway out, but don't see becoming a Democrat as an option.

Many folks in this bucket are likely to leave silently and without people knowing it, often for years. I was semi-vocal in 2016 and 2020, but it was not until 2023 (7 years into the Trump era) that I got consistently active on the topic publicly.

And, for those on the left, I aim to offer hope as an exile Republican, that many of us on the right see what is going in in our party, and recognize how destructive it's become. We want it to stop, and we're playing a part in making it better.

As a principled exile, my goal is to be an example of someone stepping outside of the circle, to be the conscience of my group, and to create a tension between the contrast to the values we Republicans (including many Christians) once espoused and how much our current party leaders have betrayed our political and religious values.

Thankfully, more and more people are joining me in exile, now that they see Trump is failing to deliver on his promises, making things worse economically, and breaking the very constitutional system that allows us all to be successful in America.

Some are seeing more clearly. Others are following.

The base is no longer just complaining about prices; they are now using the very language once reserved for the Left ("Word Salad," "Gaslighting") to describe their leader (Trump). 

I expect that most (if not all) Republicans will become exiles at some point in the next several years. To be an exile Republican is to invest in the long-term future. To stick with Trump is a short-term gain for a long-term loss.

When the Trump era is over, people will be ashamed of their support of him (much like the sense of shame I experienced after my extremist political season in 2007/8). It'll become an era of American history that Trump supporters will regret and not want to speak about (except as a cautionary tale).

In this blog post, I want to talk about the large number of Republicans who are entering the wilderness experience and what is finally driving them out. It's hard to know how widespread this shift we're seeing is, so I don't put stock in it to save us (and things will probably get worse as this unfolds), but it is worth emphasizing this exodus as a milestone moment. While many Republicans have gone into exile, many will need to see the toxicity for themselves in its most explicit forms without excuses before they turn away. These emerging patterns I've mapped out below are probably part of a leading indicator of what's to come more broadly later on.

This article is part of my series about groups controlled by the Middle School mindset, where we have explored toxic groups and controlling dynamics through the perspective of how people make meaning (Constructive Developmental Theory).

In a previous post, I principally explored how to reach self-authored people (Republican colluders and instrumental compromisers) who make meaning through their autonomy. In another post, I talked about how to communicate with Trump voters who derive meaning through fulfilling their needs or those who get meaning from group belonging. This post will be an extension of those posts, where I illuminate specific patterns in each of these three groups with specific complaints that those distancing themselves from Trump are making right now.

This article will get into more specifics of what's actually fragmenting MAGA, which is shifting daily. It's not to say they're going to vote for Democrats (although some will out of spite), but rather they won't vote at all in 2026 and 2028 (staying home instead), depending on how deep their sense of betrayal goes. By the end of this post, you'll learn about specific patterns regarding those who are abandoning their support of Trump — all based on their level of adult development (how they make meaning).

This departure won't go unnoticed and won't go without a response. Trump will take as many actions as he can to keep the group in line and avoid the inevitable fragmentation to come. As Trump loses his grip on power domestically, I suspect he'll look to make moves internationally.

A Note About the Following Patterns

The comments used in the sections below are selected by the Cult College YouTube Channel. On the channel, she shares her own experience escaping a cult and overlays that with the dynamics of the Trump-controlled Republican Party. In her recent videos, she's been reading disillusioned Trump voter comments (from X and Truth Social).

There has been a shift in the second half of 2025, where enthusiastic Trump supporters have not only removed their support of Trump but have become directly critical of him (in ways unseen before). I'd encourage you to subscribe to her channel for current updates and insights on the American crisis as she continues reading the new comments streaming in.

From Competence to Incompetence

Broadly speaking, why are we starting to see Trump loyalists be directly critical of Trump and regret their support? It's not just that they are saying Trump is incompetent, but that they are also debating what is driving these failures.

One reason is related to Trump's win in the presidency and his failure to deliver on his numerous promises. For example, one can't campaign on the corruption of the deep state and Democrats as it relates to the Epstein files and then, once in power, do everything in his power to stop the release of those files (which continue to reveal his involvement).

With Trump in power, his corruption and incompetence are clear for citizens to see, and now he has no excuses because Republicans have the power across all major branches of government. New presidents get a honeymoon period of grace, but that window has closed for Trump. And now, Republicans are feeling the disillusionment of their Trump vote.

Many of these comments shared below come from people who voted for Trump three times! Trump has failed to sustain the transactional contract (deliver on his promises), and this is forcing his followers into a crisis of integrity, finance, and loyalty.

Trump's success in his first term (despite its chaos, corruption, and failures) was often secured because principled, competent individuals surrounded Trump, acting as an "Instrumental Shield" to ensure policies were executed, and the system did not immediately collapse. The current chaos in Trump's second term is fueled by the purge of that shield and the subsequent reliance on incompetent loyalists. This means the leader can not deliver on promises and can no longer credibly blame others for his failures, as the system is now staffed by his direct, loyal appointments. He's been given massive amounts of power and all excuses removed.

Let's explore what this failure looks like for people at different stages of adult development (meaning making).

1. 💰How Win/Loss Mindsets Are Processing Their Disillusionment (The Transactional Mind - Level 2)

The transactional mind (level 2 in Constructive Developmental Theory) makes meaning in life through needs and desires. Those in level 2 meaning making are externally shaped, black and white in their thinking, and focus on winners and losers. Their disillusionment will form around these win-lose dynamics.

With people who see the world this way, Transactional Failure linked the leader's chaotic policies are direct personal costs and things they see as incompetence because the transactional mind only understands Gain and Loss. As they see and experience more of these losses, they'll begin to doubt.

Here are example patterns, strategic logic, and specific comments from disillusioned Trump's former loyalists who are experiencing these losses.

The comments above demonstrate how personalized this transactional cost has become for many level 2 individuals. These young adults can expect more of these losses to mount as Trump's second term unfolds.

Let's jump to the next group.

2. 🛡️ How Those Who Find Meaning From Group Belonging are Becoming Disillusioned (The Socialized Mind - Level 3)

Now we move to the majority of the adult population, which sits in the level 3, socialized mind (Constructive Developmental Theory). People at this stage of development make meaning through the groups to which they belong. Their beliefs are shaped by the group and its leaders. They conform to fit in. They are also shaped by external forces and fear alienation (being alone).

As individuals confront the unbearable shame of their own hypocrisy and the disintegration of their social support system, we can offer them a way out. Instead of shaming them further into the group, let the group shame drive them out. An exodus of loyalty to Trump is one of the most powerful resources available for those who make meaning from belonging to a group. They fear alienation, so when they see that staying means they'll be left alone as the group falls apart, they see why they need to leave the group themselves. Once they realize their friends are leaving, and they are being left behind, they're likely to join in on the shift.

Here are specific examples of how this is unfolding for those in the socialized meaning-making mindset.

When it comes to those at a level 3 way of making meaning, the individual is afraid of being alone. Seeing evidence that they will be alone if they stay (the herd dynamic) alleviates the shame of defecting and actually turns it into an act of important survival. If I saw a large number of people leaving the group, I’d have to question my own convictions... What do they know that I don’t?

With this dynamic, the individual creates their own dissonance internally. The external information acts as a subtle gravitational pull: "The consensus is shifting, and my continued loyalty is the abnormal, high-risk behavior."

This bypasses the typical argumentative defense mechanism entirely. For those Republicans who are having doubts about Trump and the party, as I have done, I encourage you to embrace a form of construction that makes things better. Cast a vision and make a difference locally, in your areas of influence and authority.

3. 👑 How Principles Dissidents Are Becoming Disillusioned (The Self-Authored Mind - Level 4)

People in this fourth level of meaning-making from Constructive Developmental Theory are self-authored, living out principles they've shaped and embraced. Their way of life and independence are internally driven and affect their behavior. As I shared in my previous post, Republicans in this category have become colluders, instrumental compromisers, or exiles.

People at this level are being challenged to strategic fidelity by proving that the pursuit of the current Trump ideology is structurally self-defeating and requires abandoning their core rule-of-law principles.

Here's how that is specifically and currently unraveling in the Trump movement.

Wrapping Up

The Trump movement's unraveling is fundamentally driven by the failure of the Level 2, Middle School Mindset leader (Trump) to sustain the transactional agreement. The antidote for Republicans who want out is the path of the exile: Principled Evolution and modeling Structural Integrity of our constitutional order (the only non-negotiable value left).

This approach of protecting and making the system better is vital because the system has revealed its vulnerability to a demagogue leader, and if we don't fix it, another more competent tyrant will finish the job Trump started (which may come from either party). We must use the chaos Trump creates to reveal exactly where the "Seawalls" (Constitutional guardrails) are thin and then rebuild them with multi-partisan buy-in. We treat Trump as a "Stress Test" for the Republic.

At the end of the day, I expect that anyone not named Trump will become an exile and face the wilderness experience. We, Republicans, can proactively embrace it, or we can go kicking and screaming. The more we embrace it, the less painful it will be for you and those on the other side of us.

Featured Image: The Departure of the Israelites, 1829 // Artist: David Roberts